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Craziest WSOP Fold?

By October 21, 2016 One Comment

One Comment

  • Hey guys, great video! Really enjoyed the analysis. I have a few thoughts.

    I am not so sure that it is a good move for Obst to bet the river. As you say in your analysis, he has played the hand pretty much face up – it really looks he has a full house. Not only that, it looks like exactly what he has – 77. From Ruane’s perspective, does Obst have any flushes in his range when it gets to the river? I don’t think so. It seems a lot more likely that Obst would flat the flop rather than 3bet with the nut flush draw. Also, if he did 3bet the flop, then it seems more like he would lead the turn than check/call. Ruane is a good thinking player and knows this – wouldn’t he be very likely to just fold a flush on the river to a bet? If Ruane has AXcc or KQcc (the only flushes he can reasonable have on the river other than the SF), then what can he expect to beat when Obst bets the river? There are no bluffs in Obst’s range, unless HE could be turning QJ into a bluff, and surely he would bet more if so. Therefore, Obst surely can’t expect to get calls from worse hands very often. Wouldn’t a more optimal play on the river for him be check/call (or even check/fold???).

    Another idea (albeit a bit of a crazy one) that you don’t mention is the possibility that Ruane could be turning a flush into a bluff on the river. On the podcast you say Ruane is never shoving a flush on the river on the basis that it would be a value shove, and he just wouldn’t do that because he could never get calls from worse hands. But… if you consider that Obst’s hand is pretty much face up as 77 on the river. Wouldn’t it be a pretty cool move for Ruane to shove with the nut flush to get him off it? If Ruane has the nut flush, in particular if he has the nut flush with straight flush blockers, that makes it even MORE likely Obst has the boat, as it pretty much discounts any flushes from Obst’s range (it seems very unlikely that Obst would bet KQcc on the river, or 3bet the flop with it). So, if Ruane has A9cc for example. What can Obst really have other than 77? He would have most likely 3bet QQ/JJ preflop. Ruane knows that Obst wouldn’t expect him to turn a flush into a bluff, and with a SF blocker in his hand he could represent having the SF himself. Yes it’s a bit of a crazy idea, but a possibility nonetheless?

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